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Bob the Closer? Poll Gives Stefanowski His First Lead With 4 Days to Go

November 2, 2018 By Staff
Bob the Closer? Poll Gives Stefanowski His First Lead With 4 Days to Go

Stefanowski has been surging in recent weeks, but the Sacred Heart poll is the first one to give him a lead.

Poll after poll this fall has showed Democrat Ned Lamont leading Republican Bob Stefanowski in the Connecticut gubernatorial race, but with four days to go Stefanowski has captured the lead in a new Sacred Heart University (SHU) poll.

SHU’s last poll, released last week, had Stefanowski down just 3.5 percentage points to Lamont. This week, Stefanowski is up 2.4 percentage points.

Here’s how SHU’s results have tracked in the last three months:

  • August 2018: Lamont 40.8 percent, Stefanowski 36.9 percent (Lamont +3.9)
  • September 2018: Lamont 43.1 percent, Stefanowski 36.9 percent (Lamont +6.2)
  • October 2018: Lamont 39.5 percent, Stefanowski 36.1 percent (Lamont +3.5)
  • November 2018: Stefanowski 40.0 percent, Lamont 37.6 percent (Stefanowski +2.4)

Petitioning candidate Oz Griebel earns nine percent of the vote in this poll.

Lamont’s favorability is 2.4 points underwater (40.8 percent have an “unfavorable” opinion of him, while 38.4 percent have a “favorable” opinion). Stefanowski’s favorability is 3.8 points above water (41.6 percent have a “favorable” opinion of him, while 37.8 percent have an “unfavorable” opinion).

SHU has also measured Connecticut voters’ opinions of what issue facing the state is most important. Ironically, Connecticut voters have become more unsure of the top issue facing the state as time has gone on. The proportion of voters picking “Other/don’t know” for “the most important issue” this election has gone from 9.6 percent of voters in August to 26.4 percent of voters in November.