UPDATE: Possible Final CT-Gov. Poll Results Are In; Who’s Leading With 4 Days to Go?August 10, 2018
Tremont Public Advisors released its final poll of the Connecticut Republican gubernatorial primary on Friday morning.
Mayor Mark Boughton (R-Danbury), the Republican Party-endorsed candidate for governor, has a 10-point lead on his next closest competitor in the August 14 primary, according to a poll released by Tremont Public Advisors on Friday.
Tremont also released a poll three weeks ago. That poll found Boughton up 14.3 points. This new poll finds a smaller lead for Boughton, but still a significant one.
- Boughton: 31.5 percent (+10 on Stefanowski, -2.8 from his July number)
- Businessman Bob Stefanowski: 21.5 percent (-10 from Boughton, +1.5 from his July number)
- Businessman David Stemerman: 17 percent (-14.5 from Boughton, +2.4 from his July number)
- Former First Selectman Tim Herbst (R-Trumbull): 15.6 percent (-15.9 from Boughton, +1.1 from his July number)
- Businessman Steve Obsitnik: 11.4 percent (-20.1 from Boughton, -0.2 from his July number)
Businessmen Stefanowski and Stemerman were the only two candidates to see gains from their numbers from a few weeks ago, and Stemerman (+2.4) saw the largest gain.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three percent, meaning Boughton’s lead is well outside the margin of error.
Stefanowski’s campaign questioned the legitimacy of the poll on Friday. John McLaughlin, leader of the survey research and strategic services group McLaughlin & Associates – whom Stefanowski has paid for ads – said the poll is not “scientific.”
“It’s not a scientific poll and it’s not transparent,” said McLaughlin. “They don’t release key demographic information to know if it’s right. Also an online sample of people who go to certain websites is merely cheap and not representative of the entire statewide Republican primary voter universe. It does not comply with the standards of the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers of their Transparency Initiative.”
Stefanowski suggested he’s in the lead in the primary race. “I’m also the only candidate to be attacked so consistently,” Stefanowski said. “Why would my opponents waste time attacking me if I’m not in the lead?”
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