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Sabato Group Moves CT-Gov., CT-05 in Favor of Democrats

October 4, 2018 By Staff
Sabato Group Moves CT-Gov., CT-05 in Favor of Democrats

Sabato's Crystal Ball announced race-ratings changes to the Connecticut gubernatorial contest and to the race to win the Fifth Congressional District.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan group that measures the state of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial races around the country, moved two key Connecticut contests in favor of the Democrats on Thursday.


Sabato’s group moved the gubernatorial contest, between Democrat Ned Lamont and Republican Bob Stefanowski, in Lamont’s favor, from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic.”

Crystal Ball moved two races (Arizona and Tennessee) in favor of Republicans and three (Connecticut, Georgia, and Pennsylvania) in favor of Democrats.

Here’s how Kyle Kondik explained the rating change:

We’ve long looked at this open-seat race as a Toss-up, and yet based on what we’ve heard in Connecticut, about the rosiest possible interpretation for Republicans is that the race is tied; more realistically, 2006 Senate nominee and businessman Ned Lamont (D) seems to be leading businessman Bob Stefanowski (R) by some amount, as several public polls have indicated (as well as some private ones we’ve heard about).


Sabato’s group moved the Fifth Congressional District contest, between Democrat Jahana Hayes and Republican Manny Santos, in Hayes’s favor, from “Likely Democratic” to “Safe Democratic.”

Crystal Ball moved 11 House races in favor of Democrats, and none in favor of Republicans.

Here’s how Kondik explained the rating change:

Also moving from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic is the open CT-5, a traditionally competitive seat that seemed like a possible GOP target after Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D, CT-5) opted against running for reelection in the midst of a scandal in which she seemed to cover up for an abusive former staff member, but former National Teacher of the Year Jahana Hayes (D) should be fine.

Are signs truly bad for Republicans in these key races this fall? Whether the answer is ‘yes,’ or ‘no,’ we’ll find out how right Kondik and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are in 33 days.