Sabato: With Ratings Change, CT Now the Only Gov Race Currently Held by Dems That’s a “Toss-Up”September 20, 2018
All signs point to Connecticut being the best gubernatorial pickup opportunity for Republicans this fall.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball – one of the top race prognosticators in the country – released new gubernatorial race rankings on Thursday, and while their rating of Connecticut’s gubernatorial race as a “Toss-up” did not change, other rating changes could have consequences for the state’s race this fall.
The big changes for Sabato’s Crystal Ball were in Colorado and Michigan. They changed Colorado’s gubernatorial seat, currently held by Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), from a “Toss-up” race to “Leans Democratic.” They also changed Michigan’s gubernatorial seat, currently held by Gov. Rick Snyder (R-MI), from a “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic.”
The change to Colorado means Connecticut is the only “Toss-up” race left that’s currently held by a Democrat.
There are seven remaining Toss-ups, and all but Connecticut are currently held by Republicans (and Democrats may ultimately have the edge in the Nutmeg State despite the unpopularity of outgoing Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy). So Democrats remain poised to net several governorships, although some of the biggest races — Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin most notably — remain uncertain.
One possible implication? National Republican groups could start to see Connecticut as the party’s best pickup opportunity in the 2018 cycle. Expect big spending from both sides of the aisle between now and November.
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